An Asymmetric Conflict

Our state, our nation, and our larger world are under attack by the Covid-19 virus. Many have likened it to a war, and there are certainly similarities. I know a thing or two about warfare and strategy. While the analogy only goes so far, there are some lessons here.

The virus could be seen as "asymmetric warfare", which essentially is an attack by an enemy who uses far different tactics than you are prepared for, causing enormous initial damage. The German use of long range rockets against the British during WWII illustrates how devastating this type of warfare can be. It also gives us clues as to how to win.

Asymmetric warfare has devastating psychological and 2nd order effects, and that is exactly what is happening to us right now.
The economic toll is staggering, and desperation is creeping in. Our lives have become a battlefield, and our people are being hurt in more ways than just the main attack of the sickness. We must incorporate this fact as we develop our strategy for victory.

It's possible to believe the Covid-19 virus is deadly, and still believe that we need a plan for bringing segments of our economy online.

A plan means documented benchmarks for exactly how we will get back to business based on the actual conditions.
A plan includes specific segments of the economy, specific regions of the state, and specific actions that will be taken based on measurements.
A plan includes contingencies for rolling back quickly in the event of unforeseen negative events, as well as acceleration in the event things turn out better than expected.

The data clearly shows that certain segments of the population are most at risk. Let's protect them with vigilance. We have indications that the virus is more pervasive than originally thought, let's examine what this means in terms of the death rate and incorporate into our calculations. Data shows that social distancing is working, let's maintain safety precautions as we start to resume some limited activities. Our hospitals have capacity, our testing and PPE supplies are getting better every day. Let's bring our data, our experience, our knowledge to bear on the enemy. Let's remember our brothers and sisters who are being devastated economically by being completely shut down as well as those who are sick.

The challenge is more complex than arguments over completely opening up, or staying shut down until the virus is completely gone. In short, we need a strategy to fight an enemy leveraging asymmetric warfare. What is needed is far beyond a simple "frontal attack", or a "retreat and hide" tactic. We know how to fight kinetic wars against innovative enemies. Let's use our skill, wisdom, and experience in that terrible realm to bring victory in this conflict. This is our time, our opportunity to rise to the occasion as previous generations have done with courage, innovation, and firm resolve.